“Sources close to the story that don’t wish to be identified for this report tell us that, as early as today, the sky might turn green.”
Of course, it won’t. But that’s not the point. I got the sensational headline out there first. I win. If I turn out to be wrong, that’s ok. I never said the sky would turn green. I suggested it might as early as today. If the sky ever turns green between now and the next millennia, you’ll have heard it here first.
We live in a world where speed is often rewarded over accuracy. A favorite sports radio show of mine, The Dan Patrick Show, jokes that their newsroom motto is “fast and wrong, is still fast.” Sadly, modern media seems to take this motto to heart as headlines and sound bites are consistently watered down to the point that it’s tough to discern actual news from frivolous speculation.
When it comes down to qualifying statements, “as early as today” ANYTHING might happen.
It seems to me the voices calling for some kind of market correction grow a little louder every day as we continue to struggle through one of the most disliked market rallies of all-time. Some of the banter is constructive, most is not. As I’m writing this blog, a story is circulating from former PIMCO CEO and current Allianz economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian. By all accounts, El-Erian is an incredibly intelligent human being, an expert economist and someone to whom we should listen. The big headline? A correction in stocks COULD happen if “stocks…at some point, don’t validate valuations.”
Let me get this straight. If a company I invest in turns out not to be worth what I thought when I invested, the price of that stock could go down? I don’t think we need an advance degree in economics to make that connection.
Here’s my big headline for the day. A market correction is coming. Many more will follow.
Anyone that tells you otherwise is wrong. Anyone that suggests they can help you improve portfolio performance by attempting to time that correction is misinformed at best, lying for their own gain at worst.
Looking at the S&P 500 over the last 89 years, we’ve seen roughly 23 bear and 24 bull markets depending on your definition, meaning you can expect these types of events of 3-5 years. There’s no rhyme or reason to how or when they start in either direction. But while it’s never as smooth a ride as we may like, the long term performance of the S&P 500 and other asset classes and indexes throughout the world continues to be strongly positive.
If we harp on this point of ignoring the noise and sticking with investing in low cost, globally diverse portfolios balanced allocated in a manner that fits your tolerance to risk as well as the risk required to meet your goals, it’s because there’s so much noise out there to combat.
Like market gurus, predictions and other headlines du jour, corrections come and corrections go. It’s much more exciting and I’ll get way more media attention if I tell you the sky is falling, turning green or that life as we know it will be forever changed “as early as today”, but it shouldn’t change the way you plan for tomorrow.